je.st
news
Tag: kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-09-26 13:52:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 579 WTNT32 KNHC 261152 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...KIRK HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 53.5W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe and Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 53.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-26 10:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 961 WTNT42 KNHC 260844 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 Infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours indicates that deep convection has increased and become better organized near the center of the remnants of Kirk. In addition, two earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes between 0000-0100Z indicated that the low-level center had become a little better defined, and that the inner-core wind field had contracted, now with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of about 40 nmi. Given the continued increase in the amount and organization of the deep convection, advisories have be re-initiated on Tropical Storm Kirk. The two ASCAT passes showed peak winds of 38 and 44 kt, so the initial intensity will be a blend of these two values or 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating Kirk later this morning to provide more detailed information on the location and intensity of the tropical storm. The initial motion estimates is an uncertain 280/16 kt, due to the lack of a well-defined center to track for the past two days. The global and regional models, excluding the HWRF model, are in very good agreement on Kirk moving between west and west-northwest for the next 72 hours along the south side of a strong Bermuda-Azores high pressure system anchored across most of the subtropical Atlantic. After that time, strong shear is forecast to weaken Kirk into a remnant low, resulting in a more westward motion as the shallow cyclone will be steered by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track closely follows the HCCA corrected-consensus model, and is a little south of the simple consensus model TVCA due to an apparent northward bias in the HWRF member. The current modest west to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt during the next 24 hours, which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur. After 48 hours when Kirk is forecast to emerge over the eastern Caribbean Sea, the shear is expected to increase to more then 30 kt, which should act to displace the deep convection to the east of the low-level center, resulting in rapid weakening. Kirk is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system after 72 hours, but this could occur a little sooner than indicated in the official forecast if Kirk moves farther north and into even stronger shear conditions. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 11.8N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Kirk Graphics
2018-09-26 10:39:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 08:39:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Sep 2018 09:22:07 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
kirk
Tropical Storm Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-09-26 10:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 804 FONT12 KNHC 260838 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018 0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) 1(27) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 23(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 22(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 16(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X 6( 6) 36(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-26 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26 the center of Kirk was located near 11.8, -52.7 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
kirk
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »