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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:25:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-12 22:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 122046 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 2 31(33) 58(91) 5(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 60(62) 19(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 35(35) 23(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-12 22:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122046 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next 6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this evening. The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through 5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no significant changes were made from the morning forecast. As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at 28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions, showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 28.4, -58.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-12 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 122045 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 57.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 58.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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