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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 25A
2020-09-13 07:53:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130552 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 60.4W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 60.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-13 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:41:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:25:23 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 25
2020-09-13 04:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981 mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65 kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season. The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday. The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered guidance suite at all forecast hours. Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-13 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 28.9, -59.7 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2020-09-13 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 130239 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 7 70(77) 19(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 X 15(15) 63(78) 8(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) BERMUDA 64 X 4( 4) 56(60) 8(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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