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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 04:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130239 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 59.7W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-09-13 04:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 130238 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 59.1W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)

2020-09-13 01:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 28.7, -59.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 24A

2020-09-13 01:40:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122340 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 59.2W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern and should provide more information about winds associated with Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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