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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-10-08 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 08:48:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Oct 2018 09:22:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 48
2018-10-08 10:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080846 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 There has not been a lot of change with Leslie overnight. Deep convection is still organized in curved bands near and to the north of the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the western side of the circulation. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt. Leslie is over cool 24 deg C waters, but it will be headed over slightly warmer waters during the next few days while remaining in low wind shear conditions. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected and most of the intensity models show Leslie reaching hurricane strength once again within the next 3 to 4 days. By the end of the period, cooler waters and an increase in shear could cause some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA guidance. Leslie is moving east-southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic. An east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next couple of days as the trough passes by to the north of Leslie. After that time, another large-scale trough will approach Leslie from the northwest and that should cause the storm to turn east-northeastward at a faster pace in the 4 to 5 day time frame. The models have come into a better agreement this cycle showing a faster and more northward motion at the end of the period, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 35.2N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 34.3N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 32.9N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 31.1N 42.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 29.6N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 28.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 31.2N 30.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 36.8N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2018-10-08 10:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 080845 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-08 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE STILL LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 35.2, -47.9 with movement ESE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 48
2018-10-08 10:44:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 ...LESLIE STILL LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 47.9W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-southeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and an east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during the next few days across the open central and eastern Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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