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Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 49
2018-10-08 16:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081438 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 For the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or subtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W. The convective pattern of the tropical storm hasn't changed significantly over the past several hours, though there is some evidence of a convective band attempting to wrap around the western side of the storm. The initial intensity is still 45 kt, based on a blend of the most recent current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. There has been little change in the intensity forecast. Just about all of the typically reliable intensity models still call for Leslie to gradually strengthen over the next 3 days, despite marginal SSTs. All of the dynamical models call for Leslie to become a hurricane once again by 72 h, but SHIPS and LGEM are a little lower. The official intensity forecast remains near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and calls for Leslie to become a hurricane by the end of the week. Leslie has continued to move east-southeastward, now at 12 kt, and the global models are in good agreement that this motion will continue through today. After that time, most of the guidance generally shows that Leslie will separate from a mid-latitude trough, causing the tropical storm to turn toward the southeast or south-southeast and slow down. A day or so after that, another mid-latitude trough will approach from the west and cause Leslie to accelerate toward the east-northeast. The timing of Leslie's acceleration is still very uncertain, and the model spread beyond 72 h remains very high. Until the spread decreases, I don't feel confident making a big change to the forecast, so the official track forecast has only been slightly tweaked to bring it closer to HCCA and TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 34.6N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 45.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 30.2N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 29.1N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 29.5N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 39.0N 18.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 34.6, -47.0 with movement ESE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 49
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081438 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 47.0W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the east-southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east-southeast to southeast motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is anticipated, and Leslie could be near hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2018-10-08 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 081438 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 49
2018-10-08 16:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC MON OCT 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 47.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 180SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 47.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.6N 45.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 32.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.2N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 41.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 33.0N 28.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 39.0N 18.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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