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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 10A
2016-09-30 19:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301733 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 200 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE JUST NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 71.3W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 71.3 West. Matthew is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the Guajira Peninsula this afternoon and tonight and remain over the central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-09-30 16:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 14:50:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Sep 2016 14:47:33 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-09-30 16:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 301449 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind of 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory. The aircraft reported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also observed a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest. Water vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel, with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant. This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly shear of around 20 kt. The SHIPS model output shows this shear continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time. This weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane models. However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to change much. Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to potential land interaction. Late in the period the NHC forecast is closest to the HWRF model. Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10. The cyclone should continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern Caribbean Sea. After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as the ridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance, both along and across track. The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelope at 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36 hours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of the consensus and close to the GFS at this time range. Beyond that time, the official forecast is an update of the previous one and lies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and a bit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend. It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5. Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 13.7N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 13.5N 71.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 13.5N 73.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 13.8N 74.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.7N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 25.5N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 10
2016-09-30 16:49:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016 ...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 70.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has changed the Tropical Storm Watch that was in effect from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Aruba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Aruba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 70.8 West. Matthew is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today and tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the Guajira Peninsula later today and tonight and remain over the central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro to the Colombian border. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 10
2016-09-30 16:47:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 301447 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ARUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER TO RIOHACHA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 70.8W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 70.8W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 70.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N 71.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 50SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 73.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.8N 74.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.7N 75.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N 76.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.5N 75.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 70.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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