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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-27 04:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270234 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Cristobal earlier this evening, and found that the hurricane had strengthened a bit. Based on SFMR-observed surface winds and dropsonde data from the aircraft, the intensity was increased to 70 kt. Since the time of the aircraft mission, the convective cloud tops have warmed somewhat -- but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Cristobal will remain modest through about 36 hours, but increase substantially thereafter. Therefore the hurricane has a window of opportunity for strengthening that should last through tomorrow night. The official wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus. Later in the forecast period, as Cristobal nears and undergoes extratropical transition, strong baroclinic forcing should result in a powerful post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft fixes indicate a northward motion of about 360/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. Over the next day or two, Cristobal should move through a weakness between 2 subtropical anticyclones. Thereafter, the cyclone should turn northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough moving off of the northeastern United States, and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest track model guidance has shifted a bit to the left, and the official forecast remains near the right side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 30.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 32.0N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 34.3N 69.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 36.6N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 47.5N 45.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z 62.0N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-27 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 30.4, -71.5 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-27 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270234 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 71.5W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-08-27 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 270234 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 1(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-27 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270233 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC WED AUG 27 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 71.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 32.0N 71.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.3N 69.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.6N 66.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 39.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 47.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 200SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 62.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 71.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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