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Hurricane ANDRES Graphics

2015-06-01 23:09:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 20:35:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2015 21:04:45 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)

2015-06-01 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ANDRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jun 1 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.9, -121.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane ANDRES Public Advisory Number 19

2015-06-01 22:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 012033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDRES ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 ...ANDRES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 121.1W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Andres was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 121.1 West. Andres is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday with a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Andres is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further weakening is expected during the next 48 hours and Andres is forecast to rapidly weaken to a tropical storm on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 18

2015-06-01 16:52:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011452 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 Enhanced infrared B-D curve imagery indicates that the eye temperature has cooled considerably this morning to about 7 Celsius, which results in a decrease of the subjective satellite intensity estimates to T6.0 (115 kt). Based on a compromise of these estimates and the objective data-T of 6.7 (132kt), the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 120 kt. Earlier IR satellite imagery showed that Andres peaked around 0900 UTC at an estimated 130 kt and it now appears that the expected weakening trend has begun, likely due to the intruding stable atmospheric marine layer from the northwest. Andres should be moving over cooler waters during the next 24 hours, which should result in a more rapid rate of weakening. The aforementioned stable air mass, cooler water, and increasing southwesterly shear by day 3, should cause the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 48 hours, and a remnant low in 96 hours or less. The hurricane has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving at 285/5kt. Andres is forecast to turn toward the northwest in about 48 hours as the subtropical ridge begins to weaken with the approach of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough from the northwest. By day 3, the approaching trough is expected to result in a gradual turn toward the north and northeast but with a significant reduction is forward speed because of the sheared, shallow structure of the cyclone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus, GFEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.7N 120.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 18.5N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 19.2N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.3N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.8N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 20.8N 124.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Summary for Hurricane ANDRES (EP1/EP012015)

2015-06-01 16:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ANDRES WEAKENS A BIT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jun 1 the center of ANDRES was located near 15.7, -120.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

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