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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 11A
2017-09-08 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080545 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 ...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOSE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 54.4W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 54.4 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-08 04:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 02:53:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2017 02:53:29 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-08 04:49:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080249 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 After strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of Jose appears to have leveled off this evening. Nonetheless, Jose is an impressive category 3 hurricane. The eye remains quite distinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric. In addition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of the favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental conditions. Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to an increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity forecast is in line with the consensus models. This forecast is slightly lower than the previous one. The initial motion is 280/16 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged from earlier. A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to move west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the hurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and Saturday. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move northwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a tropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 15.6N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.1N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 58.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 19.2N 62.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 25.8N 68.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 27.1N 67.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-08 04:48:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 080248 PWSAT2 HURRICANE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 12(23) X(23) 1(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 38(51) 5(56) 1(57) X(57) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 20(37) 3(40) X(40) X(40) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 53(56) 19(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 20(20) 23(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ANTIGUA 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 14(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) X(21) 1(22) X(22) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GUADELOUPE 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 7(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-08 04:48:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017 ...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JOSE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 53.9W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * Saba and St. Eustatius A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 53.9 West. Jose is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Saturday, and tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 6 inches in the Leeward Islands from Dominica to Anguilla. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in the northern Leeward Islands from Antigua and Barbuda to Anguilla. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands by late Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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