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Tropical Storm JULIO Graphics
2014-08-04 17:27:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 14:42:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 15:11:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-08-04 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Julio remains sharply sheared from the northeast, and deep convection is limited to the western half of the circulation. A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt. The global dynamical guidance suggests that moderate northwesterly shear will continue for at least the next 24 to 36 hours, which should limit the rate at which the tropical cyclone can strengthen. After that, the environment is forecast to become more favorable, and the members of IVCN unanimously indicate that Julio will become a hurricane within 72 hours. By days 4 and 5, the intensity is expected to level off while the cyclone encounters cooler SSTs due to a combination of the sharp SST gradient to the northwest, and a possible cold wake from Hurricane Iselle. The initial motion remains 270/11. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged and Julio is still expected to be steered generally west-northwestward by a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. A slightly more northward component to the motion is expected later in the forecast period while Julio encounters a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge. The track guidance has shifted north again so the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward accordingly. However, it remains slightly south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.5N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg
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Tropical Storm JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2014-08-04 16:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 041440 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 28(34) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-04 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of JULIO was located near 13.5, -119.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 3
2014-08-04 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041439 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...JULIO CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 119.4W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.4 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND JULIO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
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