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Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 10
2014-08-06 10:47:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 060847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 129.0W ABOUT 1750 MI...2820 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 10
2014-08-06 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060843 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 129.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 129.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.7N 137.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.3N 140.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.5N 145.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 20.4N 151.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.0N 156.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2014-08-06 10:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 060843 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 3(39) X(39) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm JULIO Graphics
2014-08-06 05:26:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 02:40:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 03:10:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-06 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060238 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 After a decrease in the overall thunderstorm activity earlier today, a new burst of deep convection has redeveloped near the center. The outflow remains fair in all quadrants suggesting that there is little wind shear over the cyclone. Based on satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale, the initial intensity is been kept at 55 knots. Given the current structure in both conventional satellite and microwave data, as well as the prevailing low shear, it is very likely that Julio will reach hurricane status within the next 6 to 12 hours. Some additional strengthening is then forecast. However, despite the expected light shear, the strengthening will be limited by the cooler ocean ahead of Julio, and the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond 36 hours. This is consistent with the intensity models which have an upper intensity limit of 80 knots by the SHIPS model. The best estimate of the initial motion is 285 degrees at 13 knots. Julio is well embedded within the easterly flow around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Global models keep a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, and forecast some slight erosion of the western portion of the ridge thereafter. This pattern should keep Julio on a general west-northwest track through the forecast period. Although the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, it has been adjusted slightly northward to be consistent with the multi-model consensus TVCE and be more centered within the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 14.4N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 14.9N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 17.0N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 18.0N 144.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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