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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 7
2014-08-05 16:31:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 051431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 124.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 124.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 126.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 129.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.1N 135.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm JULIO Graphics
2014-08-05 11:26:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 09:04:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 09:10:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-08-05 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050855 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Enhanced BD-curve and shortwave infrared imagery reveal little change in the overall cloud pattern of Julio this morning. A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass caught the west side of the cyclone and indicated that the winds over the area have actually decreased a bit from yesterday's overpass. Evidently, the 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear continues to impede intensification of the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory. The statistical/dynamical guidance, however, still indicates strengthening through 48 to 60 hours, and both the SHIPS and the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) show a maximum intensity of 80 kt at that time. Late in the forecast period, Julio is expected to traverse a rather steep sea surface temperature gradient and encounter a more dry and stable air mass intruding from the mid-latitudes of the central Pacific. Both negative contributions should promote a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast follows suit, and is based on a blend of the higher SHIPS and FSSE guidance, which is slightly above the IVCN model. A timely 0523 UTC AMSU MHS microwave image was quite helpful in pinpointing the center of circulation. Julio's initial motion is estimated to be 275/13 kt, within the mid-level easterly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north. This east-to- west oriented ridge is expected to influence a generally westward heading for the next 3 days. For the remainder of the forecast period, global models show a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii and eroding the western extent of the ridge. The weakening of the ridge is expected to cause Julio to turn toward west-northwestward through day 5. The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the right, and is very close to the TVCE multi-model consensus and the FSSE corrected consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 13.6N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 13.9N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 14.6N 128.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 19.0N 152.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-08-05 10:43:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050842 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 4(37) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-05 10:42:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 the center of JULIO was located near 13.6, -123.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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