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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 8

2014-08-05 22:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 052053 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 134.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 137.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 19.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.0N 153.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)

2014-08-05 16:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD FAR FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 the center of JULIO was located near 14.0, -124.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 7

2014-08-05 16:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051440 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...JULIO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD FAR FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 124.7W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-08-05 16:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Microwave imagery indicates that the center of Julio is located on the northern edge of the convective canopy, consistent with 10 kt or so of northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS satellite analyses and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Conditions should support gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast shows Julio becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. By day 4, the cyclone will be moving over more marginal SSTs around 26C, but then back over warmer water by day 5. Given that the shear remains relatively low late in the period, only a little weakening is shown by day 4 with the intensity leveling off afterward. The NHC forecast is a little above the IVCN intensity consensus through the period. Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest that the center is located a little to the north of previous estimates, providing an initial motion estimate of 275/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Julio will be steered generally westward through 96 hours by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the cyclone will be approaching the western edge of the ridge, which should result in a turn toward the west-northwest. The combination of the more northward initial position and a northward shift in the guidance results in the NHC track forecast being nudged northward a bit. The official forecast close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models on the south side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.0N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.4N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.1N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.1N 135.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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