je.st
news
Tag: julio
Tropical Storm JULIO Graphics
2014-08-05 23:25:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 20:56:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 21:10:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
julio
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-05 22:54:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Julio is becoming better organized, with increased convective banding and cloud tops colder than -80C near the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from TAFB and SAB respectively. In addition, an earlier CIMSS AMSU estimate was 53 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 280/12. A low/mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. After that, the dynamical models forecast the ridge to weaken, which would cause Julio to move more northward. The track guidance envelope is similar to the previous guidance through 72 hours, and this part of the forecast is an update of the previous forecast. From 72-120 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted significantly to the north. The new forecast track is also shifted northward, but it still lies to the south of the consensus models and all of the dynamical models except the GFDL/NAVGEM. If the current model trends continue, an additional northward adjustment may be necessary in later advisories. It should be noted that the NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for Hurricane Iselle, and the data from this mission will hopefully help the subsequent forecasts for Julio. Julio is now in a light vertical wind shear environment, and the dynamical models suggest this will continue through the forecast period. However, the forecast track takes the system over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48 hours. The consensus of the intensity guidance is for continued strengthening for the next 36-48 hours, and the increased banding seen during the last few hours could be the start of a faster intensification rate. The new intensity forecast continues to call for a peak intensity of 75 kt, and at this time only the HFIP-sponsored University of Wisconsin model forecasts a higher peak intensity. After 48 hours, gradual weakening is expected as the center moves along the 26C isotherm and this part of the new forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 14.2N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 14.7N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.0N 134.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 16.6N 137.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 19.0N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 21.0N 153.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
julio
Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-05 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 the center of JULIO was located near 14.2, -126.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
julio
tropical
Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 8
2014-08-05 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 052053 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...JULIO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 126.0W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND JULIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
public
storm
julio
Tropical Storm JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2014-08-05 22:54:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 052053 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 1(29) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Sites : [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] next »