je.st
news
Tag: julio
Hurricane JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-08-06 16:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061431 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 1(42) X(42) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-08-06 16:30:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 061430 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 1500 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 130.5W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 130.5W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 129.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.0N 138.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.7N 141.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.0N 152.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 130.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
julio
advisory
forecast
Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-06 11:26:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 08:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 09:10:00 GMT
Tags: graphics
julio
hurricane
Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-06 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060851 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 A small burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C has developed over the low-level center, resulting in the formation of a central dense overcast feature. In addition, passive microwave satellite imagery has been indicating a 75-100 percent closed low- to mid-level eye feature since about 0100 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T4.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Julio the fifth hurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season. The initial motion estimate is 285/15 kt based on a blend of conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands on Days 4 and 5, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward, passing just north of the Islands. However, the new model runs, which have incorporated the 0000 UTC NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data are not showing as much erosion of the ridge as in previous runs, and the response has been a slight southward shift of the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly southward after that, similar to the consensus model TVCE, but not as far south as the ECMWF model. The latter model brings Julio much closer to the Hawaiian Islands since it no longer develops a break in the ridge. The developing eye feature, low shear of less than 5 kt, and a moistening mid-troposphere argue for at least some modest strengthening for the next 36 hours or so as Julio moves from a SST cold pool and over a warmer oceanic ridge. These condition also typically favor rapid intensification, which would be a possibility, except for the occasional intrusions of cooler and more stable air from the north. However, it wouldn't be surprising if Julio reaches its peak intensity a little sooner than forecast while the upper-level outflow pattern continues to expand. By 48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air mass, which should induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory and the consensus model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 14.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 16.7N 137.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 17.3N 140.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 18.5N 145.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 20.4N 151.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 23.0N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
julio
forecast
Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-06 10:47:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 the center of JULIO was located near 14.8, -129.0 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
julio
hurricane
ep5ep102014
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »