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Hurricane JULIO Public Advisory Number 12
2014-08-06 22:46:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062046 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 ...JULIO CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 131.8W ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE STARTING ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 12
2014-08-06 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062046 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC WED AUG 06 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 131.8W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 131.8W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 131.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 134.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.9N 137.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.4N 140.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.0N 143.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 154.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 158.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane JULIO Graphics
2014-08-06 17:26:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 14:32:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2014 15:10:00 GMT
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Hurricane JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-08-06 16:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061431 TCDEP5 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014 Julio has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While cloud tops near the center are about -80C, AMSR-2 microwave imagery a few hours ago showed that the eyewall was open to the north. That, combined with a large arc cloud seen moving northward away from the center, suggests that dry air entrainment is occurring on the north side. Satellite intensity estimates are 77 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB. Given the current appearance, the initial intensity remains 65 kt. The cirrus outflow is good over the southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is still 285/15, and there is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more northwestward and pass north of the Islands. There is some spread in the guidance by 96-120 hours. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL are on the south side of the guidance envelope forecasting a track closer to Hawaii, while the GFS, GFS Ensemble Mean, and Canadian models are on the right side of the guidance envelope. The center of the envelope and the consensus models are very close to the previous forecast, and thus the new forecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast. Julio is in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and it should remain over sea surface temperatures of 26C or warmer for the next 12-24 hours. This should allow some strengthening if the storm can fight off the current dry air intrusion. After that, the cyclone is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C, which should cause some weakening. There is disagreement in the dynamical models about how much shear Julio should encounter while over the cooler water, particularly near the Hawaiian Islands. The UKMET forecasts stronger shear, while the GFS/ECMWF are forecasting less shear. The intensity forecast leans toward the GFS/ECMWF scenario and thus calls for Julio to slowly weaken after 36 hours. The new forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and is similar to the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 15.2N 130.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 17.0N 138.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 17.7N 141.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 21.0N 152.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-06 16:31:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 the center of JULIO was located near 15.2, -130.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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