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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)

2014-08-05 04:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIO MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of JULIO was located near 13.5, -122.8 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 5

2014-08-05 04:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 050239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...JULIO MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 122.8W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-08-05 04:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 050239 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 8(44) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-08-05 04:38:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 050238 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.8W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 122.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.7N 124.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N 127.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.7N 130.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.2N 133.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 138.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 122.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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