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Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-08-04 22:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042054 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 Tropical Storm Julio has become substantially better organized during the past several hours. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now support an initial intensity of 50 kt. A band of deep convection is beginning to wrap most of the way around the circulation, and a 1730 UTC ASCAT pass shows that the low- and mid-level centers are now close to being vertically aligned. Julio has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 270/14. A continued westward motion is expected for the next 5 days while the tropical cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific. There has been no significant change in the model guidance for this forecast cycle, and the official forecast now lies very near the multi-model consensus. The intensity forecast presents a larger challenge, and several of the models now predict more intensification. DSHP, LGEM, and the HWRF all suggest that Julio will become a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon, which seems reasonable given the recent vertical alignment of the vortex. After that, there is considerable uncertainty as to how much additional strengthening will occur, with DSHP forecasting a 100-kt major hurricane, and GHMI peaking at 70 kt. The official forecast splits these scenarios and peaks at 85 kt, near the intensity consensus. Late in the forecast period, Julio is forecast to pass over cooler SSTs which should lead to weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 13.5N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm JULIO (EP5/EP102014)
2014-08-04 22:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIO ACCELERATES WESTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of JULIO was located near 13.5, -121.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm JULIO Public Advisory Number 4
2014-08-04 22:52:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042052 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...JULIO ACCELERATES WESTWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 121.6W ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST. JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
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Tropical Storm JULIO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2014-08-04 22:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042052 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 25(42) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
Tropical Storm JULIO Forecast Advisory Number 4
2014-08-04 22:52:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042052 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 121.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 121.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 121.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BERG
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