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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 8A
2015-08-27 01:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 262338 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 ...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 59.5W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * Antigua and Barbuda * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo Frances Viejo * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika, and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-26 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 20:53:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Aug 2015 20:50:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-08-26 22:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 262050 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015 The satellite presentation of the tropical storm has become less organized since the previous advisory, with the low-level center becoming exposed to the northwest of the thunderstorm activity. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon has not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this morning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but this could be generous. The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this morning. Erika is forecast to move through an area of moderate to strong westerly shear during the next two to three days. Although the NHC intensity forecast during that time shows no change in intensity, weakening is possible during the next couple of days. In fact, Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to the shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles. After 72 hours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more conducive for development and all of the guidance, including the global models, shows intensification. Therefore, the days 4 and 5 intensity forecast again calls for strengthening, but is below the intensity consensus and near the SHIPS model. The official forecast leans toward the lower side of the guidance to reflect the possibility that the cyclone's structure would be too disrupted to fully take advantage of the more conducive environment late in the period. The initial motion remains 280/15 kt. Erika is forecast to move west-northwestward during the next three to four days to the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. After that time, the global models show a weakness in the ridge developing over the far western Atlantic, which should cause Erika to turn northwestward. All of the models have shifted eastward at days four and five, but the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF define the western edge of the guidance. Out of respect of these models and the previous NHC forecast, the updated track has only been moved slightly eastward late in the period. As a result, the new forecast lies west of the multi-model consensus at 96 and 120 h. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.6N 58.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.2N 66.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 20.5N 69.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 22.7N 74.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 25.0N 77.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-26 22:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 26 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.6, -58.9 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-08-26 22:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 262050 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 9(32) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 7(30) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 4(29) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 3(28) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) 1(26) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 1(29) X(29) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PONCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 15(15) 29(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X 16(16) 19(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 51(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 52(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 16 54(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BARBUDA 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 16 51(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ANTIGUA 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 17 18(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) AVES 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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