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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 12
2015-08-27 23:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272036 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 64.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Montserrat * St. Kitts and Nevis * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 64.0 West. Erika is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of the warning area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours, and reach the Virgin Islands this evening and Puerto Rico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the watch area in the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)
2015-08-27 23:30:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ERIKA PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.6, -64.0 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-27 23:12:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 21:05:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 21:06:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-08-27 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 272037 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 The center has been wobbling during the day, but the mean motion is estimated to be 285/13. In the mean, a west-northwestward track to the south of a subtropical ridge is likely to continue for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn to the right along the southwestern and western periphery of the ridge. There remains considerable spread in the track model guidance at days 3 to 5, partly due to differences in model-predicted intensities at those time frames. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS. Vertical shear is expected to be fairly strong for the next couple of days and that, along with the interaction with land, should preclude significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, and this could allow for intensification assuming that the cyclone is not too disrupted by the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola. Because of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential interaction with land over the next few days, there is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to 5. The biggest short-term threat posed by Erika is very heavy rainfall over portions of the Leeward Islands, which should spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Friday. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. More than 12 inches of rain has fallen in Dominica, with reports of fatalities in that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.9N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-08-27 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 272036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 13(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 10(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 11(35) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 11(35) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) 10(40) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20(36) 7(43) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) 6(42) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 5(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 4(27) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 6(33) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 8(32) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 8(28) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 16(39) 6(45) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 8(44) 2(46) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) 6(44) 2(46) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) X(14) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 27(43) 1(44) 1(45) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 14(30) 1(31) 1(32) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 12(12) 25(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 8( 8) 40(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 38 40(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PONCE 50 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN 34 64 17(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SAN JUAN 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT CROIX 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT MAARTEN 34 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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