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Tag: erika

Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2015-08-28 05:03:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 280303 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 11(23) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 11(30) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 11(33) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 10(36) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 11(37) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 9(41) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 6(44) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 16(38) 5(43) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 3(32) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 4(26) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 6(33) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 6(32) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 7(29) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 9(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 10(22) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) 5(45) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 6(45) 2(47) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) 2(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 33(42) 5(47) 1(48) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 17(44) 1(45) 1(46) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 8(28) 1(29) 1(30) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 12(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 26(26) 23(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 29(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 77 6(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PONCE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 79 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SAINT THOMAS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 13

2015-08-28 04:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 280253 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE * CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.7W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm ERIKA Graphics

2015-08-28 01:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 23:56:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2015 21:06:49 GMT

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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory Number 12A

2015-08-28 01:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 272352 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 800 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 ...ERIKA SOAKING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 64.7W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the Central Bahamas. The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from west of Isla Saona to Punta Palenque. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. The Meteorological Service of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Vieques * Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward and southward to Isla Saona * Southeastern Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Central Bahamas Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should monitor the progress of Erika. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.7 West. Erika has slowed down a little and is now moving westward near 12 mph (19 km/h). Erika should resume a west-northwest track with a slight increase in forward speed later tonight. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening, move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the Dominican Republic on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, and these conditions should spread westward across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday. RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERIKA (AT5/AL052015)

2015-08-28 00:20:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ERIKA SOAKING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27 the center of ERIKA was located near 16.7, -64.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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