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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-18 05:14:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 02:37:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jul 2015 03:06:29 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 23
2015-07-18 04:36:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180236 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Organized deep convection has been absent from the center for about 12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is occurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than 75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated as a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT surface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions should inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so gradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected over the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for dissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models. The initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC model guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique should make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The official track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-18 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 20.3, -137.3 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 23
2015-07-18 04:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 180235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...ENRIQUE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 137.3W ABOUT 1765 MI...2840 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Enrique was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 137.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the south is expected during the next day or so, followed by a slow and erratic motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the low is expected to dissipate by early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2015-07-18 04:35:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 180235 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0300 UTC SAT JUL 18 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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