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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2015-07-16 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 162034 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-16 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 20.2, -135.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2015-07-16 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 135.9W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 135.9W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 135.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-16 16:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 14:36:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 16 Jul 2015 14:33:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-07-16 16:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease, data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds near 1100 UTC. Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return, Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After that, steering currents weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down. Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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