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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-07-17 10:56:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not weakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were still tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt, resulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm. Several hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over the northern portion of the circulation. Recently, however that convection is dissipating. Enrique should be traversing waters cooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air. Therefore, weakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. This is also consistent with the SHIPS guidance. The center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Over the next few days, Enrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general counterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level cyclonic gyre. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2015-07-17 10:56:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 170856 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-17 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE RECLASSIFIED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 20.6, -136.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 20
2015-07-17 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 170855 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ...ENRIQUE RECLASSIFIED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 136.8W ABOUT 1730 MI...2785 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 136.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected during the next day or so, followed by a slow and erratic motion. Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Enrique is likely to become a remnant low within the next 24 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-07-17 10:54:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170854 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 CORRECTED INITIAL WIND RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 136.8W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 30SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 136.8W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 136.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 136.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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