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Tropical Depression ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 22

2015-07-17 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 172034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC FRI JUL 17 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 137.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 137.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 137.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 137.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.2N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 23.0N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 137.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics

2015-07-17 16:45:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 14:45:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Jul 2015 14:32:49 GMT

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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 21

2015-07-17 16:32:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 171432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Enrique has changed little in organization over the past several hours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north of the center. There is no recent scatterometer data from the central core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory. The cyclone should decay over sea surface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so. It should be noted that while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after 96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than 120 hours. The initial motion is now 270/3. The track guidance suggests that Enrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during the next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)

2015-07-17 16:32:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 20.5, -137.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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