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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2015-07-16 10:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 160844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)

2015-07-16 10:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 16 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 19.5, -134.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 16

2015-07-16 10:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160843 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 134.8W ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 134.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Enrique is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today, and become a remnant low by Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 16

2015-07-16 10:43:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160843 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC THU JUL 16 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 134.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 134.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 134.5W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 134.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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