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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-15 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the upper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep convection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The latest Dvorak estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique is already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is forecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus, dissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so. Enrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to collapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its remnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation occurs in 4 or 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2015-07-15 22:35:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 152035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-15 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER COLD WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 19.0, -133.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 14
2015-07-15 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...ENRIQUE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER COLD WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 133.6W ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 133.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-07-15 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152034 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 133.6W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 133.6W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 133.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 133.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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