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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-07-15 16:31:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 151431 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-07-15 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Microwave images during the evening indicate that Enrique's circulation is tilted with the low-level center located near the southern portion of the main convective mass. This is due to moderate south-southwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model and a UW/CIMSS shear analysis. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The moderate southerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual weakening during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/8 kt. The storm should continue to move west-northwestward to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge during the next day or two. After 48 hours, the large circulation of Hurricane Dolores is expected to cause the steering currents to weaken over the far eastern Pacific. This should result in a reduction in Enrique's forward speed, and a southward drift later in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 48 hours, and has been adjusted a little westward thereafter, to be in better agreement with the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.8N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.3N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 20.9N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z 19.3N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2015-07-15 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-15 10:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 18.8, -132.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 12
2015-07-15 10:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 150836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...ENRIQUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 132.1W ABOUT 1460 MI...2345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 132.1 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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