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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-15 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 14:33:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 15 Jul 2015 14:34:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-15 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little less organized than yesterday while microwave data show that Enrique's circulation continues to be tilted. The low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the weakening deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies are lower than earlier, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 40 kt. The circulation is already moving over 25 degree Celsius waters. Most of the guidance shows weakening and then dissipation in about 48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. Enrique has been moving on a steady west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 7 kt steered by the flow to the south of a narrow subtropical ridge. As Enrique weakens further and the steering flow collapses, the cyclone should begin to drift westward or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast and track guidance are in good agreement primarily during the next to 36 to 48 hours while Enrique is still expected to be a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-15 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE HAS REACHED COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 15 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 19.0, -132.9 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 13
2015-07-15 16:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 151431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 ...ENRIQUE HAS REACHED COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 132.9W ABOUT 1505 MI...2425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 132.9 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2015-07-15 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 151431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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