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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 11
2015-07-15 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 150234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.2W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 131.2W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.2N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.4N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 20.2N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 131.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-14 23:21:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 20:47:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Jul 2015 21:09:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-14 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142039 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 While Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern became a little better organized. It now consists of a small central dense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band. The upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the western semicircle. A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are at least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have increased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt. In about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast to increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should become a remnant low in 3 days or sooner. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. Global models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents will collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation. This NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-14 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 18.4, -130.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 10
2015-07-14 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 142039 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...ENRIQUE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 130.5W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 130.5 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. However, some weakening should begin during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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