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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-13 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132048 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly fragmented. Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt. A partial pass by the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center. It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about four days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from the previous NHC forecast. Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today. It is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has begun this turn toward the west-northwest. After moving toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-07-13 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 132045 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-13 22:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN AS A LOW END TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 13 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 16.7, -127.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 6
2015-07-13 22:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132045 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...ENRIQUE CONTINUES OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN AS A LOW END TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 127.6W ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 127.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone is expected to turn toward the west-northwest at a slightly slower rate of forward speed during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-07-13 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 132044 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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