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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-14 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Deep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage overnight, however, the overall organization of the system has not changed appreciably. A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in locating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next day or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it moves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over cooler waters. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow weakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores' large circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly stationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-14 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 17.3, -129.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Public Advisory Number 8
2015-07-14 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 ...ENRIQUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 129.0W ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 129.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2015-07-14 10:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 140834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 8
2015-07-14 10:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 129.0W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 129.0W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 128.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 129.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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