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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Graphics
2015-07-13 16:54:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 14:54:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2015 14:51:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-13 16:53:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131453 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 Enrique's convective structure consists of a large band that wraps about halfway around the cyclone in its southern semicircle. Unlike the convectively uninhibited nature of Tropical Storm Dolores to its east, the showers and thunderstorm activity of Enrique have warmer cloud tops and the band is somewhat fragmented. As the TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications remain unchanged at 2.5, the intensity for Enrique remains 35 kt. It appears that Enrique will continue to be convectively challenged as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to 10-15 kt out of the south in about two days, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after about two days and the system becoming a remnant low in about five days. The official intensity forecast is closest to the GHMI dynamical model - the model that anticipates the most development - but the NHC prediction represents a modest reduction from the forecast issued previously. Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt, primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a west-northwestward turn, which the cyclone has stubbornly resisted thus far. Once such a turn does materialize, Enrique should move toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for about three to four days. After that time, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement should decrease as the steering flow weakens. The official track forecast is north of the consensus at 12 and 24 hours due to the continued right-of-track movement currently occurring and then close to the TVCN multi-model consensus thereafter. This NHC prediction is consistently north of that from the previous advisory because of the continued unanticipated northerly movement of Enrique currently. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.9N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-07-13 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 131451 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-07-13 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 131450 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 1500 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.6W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 126.6W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 126.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Storm ENRIQUE (EP1/EP062015)
2015-07-13 16:50:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD - NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 13 the center of ENRIQUE was located near 15.9, -126.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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