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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-03 07:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 05:55:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 03:07:48 GMT
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bertha
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-03 07:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 3 the center of BERTHA was located near 20.2, -70.5 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 9A
2014-08-03 07:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 200 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014 ...BERTHA EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 70.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS WELL AS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-03 05:13:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 02:42:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 03:07:48 GMT
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bertha
Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-03 04:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030245 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 While there has been some increase in the coverage of cold convective tops associated with Bertha this evening, the cyclone remains disorganized. Surface observations from the Dominican Republic have not definitively shown a closed circulation, and it is possible that what surface circulation there was has been disrupted by land interaction. We will maintain Bertha as a tropical cyclone for now, but advisories could be discontinued on Sunday if the organization of the system does not improve. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on rain-adjusted SFMR winds reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft well east of the center prior to 00 UTC. The initial motion estimate of 310/19 is based on a blend of the latest satellite imagery and continuity. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast remains unchanged. Bertha will continue moving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge tonight and Sunday. Then the cyclone will turn northward on Monday between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States, followed by a northeastward acceleration into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model guidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario. However, the models have shifted to the left this cycle at 48 hours and beyond, showing a more gradual recurvature. The NHC track through 36 hours is largely an update of the previous one. After that time, the official forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one, but now lies along the right side of the guidance envelope. There continue to be three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha. The official forecast assumes that Bertha will survive its current lack of structure, land interaction, shear, and dry air entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in 24-36 hours. At that point, the environment would likely allow for intensification until extratropical transition begins after 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in 4 days, and is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus. An alternate scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical wave in the next 12 to 24 hours, with possible regeneration later when the system reaches the more favorable environment. A third possibility involves a trough of low pressure currently situated over the central and northwestern Bahamas. The 1200 UTC runs of the UKMET and NAVGEM forecast the low to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the latest GFS and ECMWF runs keep this system weaker and maintain Bertha through the forecast period. Later model runs should help refine the likelihood of this scenario. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 24.1N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 27.2N 74.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 30.4N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 41.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan
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