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Summary for Tropical Depression ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-29 10:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSLYN A LITTLE WEAKER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 29 the center of ROSLYN was located near 22.7, -115.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 16
2016-09-29 10:52:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016 ...ROSLYN A LITTLE WEAKER... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 115.3W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 115.3 West. Roslyn is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Roslyn is expected to become a remnant low later today. The remnant low should then dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Graphics
2016-09-29 05:13:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:55:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 03:07:07 GMT
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-29 04:57:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290256 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of the center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in accordance with the past ASCAT data. The cyclone should move over progressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry environment. Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is an update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant low in 12 hours. The depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt. Roslyn should turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in about 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the north. The new track forecast is a little slower than and south of the previous one since the latest guidance has trended in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-09-29 04:55:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290255 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 0300 UTC THU SEP 29 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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