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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2016-09-28 16:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281441 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 1500 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.2W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.2W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E (EP4/EP192016)
2016-09-27 06:13:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVES INTO CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 26 the center of NINETEEN-E was located near 11.6, -140.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Graphics
2016-09-26 23:39:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2016 21:39:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Sep 2016 21:06:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-26 23:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262138 CCA TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E The depression's cloud pattern is a little less organized than it was earlier today. Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level center near the western edge of a small mass of deep convection whose convective tops have warmed, presumably due to some northwesterly shear. Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.0 and T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt, on the lower end of these values. The large-scale factors influencing the intensity of the depression over the next few days are less conducive than previously assessed. Even though the cyclone will be moving over waters around 28 deg C and will encounter an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, some west- northwesterly shear is forecast to persist. A marginally moist environment surrounding the tropical cyclone is also forecast to dry further. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some over the previous one in line with the current guidance and much below the dynamical guidance. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in 3 to 4 days, westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt is expected to reduce the system to a remnant low. The cyclone's heading has been more westerly than previously estimated, and a longer-term average of satellite fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 285/05. Global models show the cyclone turning abruptly northward within the next 24 hours and then north- northeastward as it rotates around a mid-tropospheric cyclone slowly retrograding near 18N 140W. When the cyclone decouples in 3 to 4 days, a turn toward the west is likely as the remnant low is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is shifted toward the left of the previous track because of the more westerly initial motion and lies well west of the multi-model consensus, closest to the leftmost ECMWF model. The next advisory will be issued issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.6N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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