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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-E (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-23 10:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 the center of TWENTY-E was located near 13.1, -103.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-10-23 10:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 230845 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 103.6W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 103.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could be near hurricane strength by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-10-23 10:45:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 230845 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 110W 34 X 6( 6) 63(69) 6(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 31(42) 1(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 29(44) 1(45) X(45) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 2(18) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 4(32) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-10-23 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 230845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 103.6W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 103.6W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 103.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Graphics
2016-09-29 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 08:53:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2016 08:52:33 GMT
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