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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-09-28 22:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 282032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 2100 UTC WED SEP 28 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Graphics
2016-09-28 17:14:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 14:43:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 28 Sep 2016 15:07:14 GMT
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-09-28 16:43:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281443 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 Roslyn has been weakening. Deep convection associated with the cyclone dissipated late yesterday, and only a few puffs of new convection have redeveloped but are well removed to the northeast of the center. A TAFB Dvorak CI of 2.0 is used to lower the initial intensity to 30 kt, and assumes some spin-down of the vortex since the overnight ASCAT pass that showed 35-kt winds. With southwesterly shear of around 30 kt, increasing atmospheric stability and an extremely dry environment, and much cooler waters along the path of the cyclone, further weakening is likely. Roslyn is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and the current intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance. The initial motion estimate is 035/09, though the shorter-term motion may be a bit more to the left. To the extent that Roslyn remains a coupled cyclone, the motion should gradually turn northward today around a cut-off low well southwest of the California coast. A turn toward the northwest is expected once the cyclone become a shallower feature, and its motion is governed by the low-level flow. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and is close to a multi-model consensus without the GFDL model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 21.0N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression ROSLYN (EP3/EP182016)
2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSLYN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 28 the center of ROSLYN was located near 21.0, -115.2 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Public Advisory Number 13
2016-09-28 16:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 ...ROSLYN WEAKENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 115.2W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Roslyn was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north and then north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected later on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is likely, and Roslyn is expected to become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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