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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Public Advisory Number 2
2016-10-23 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 105.0W ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 105.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and could be near hurricane strength by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-10-23 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 30(30) 44(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 110W 50 X 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 23(40) 1(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 19(51) 1(52) X(52) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) 1(20) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 2(36) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-10-23 16:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.0W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 104.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 105.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Graphics
2016-10-23 11:06:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2016 08:47:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2016 09:03:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-10-23 10:46:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230846 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Conventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep convection associated with the low pressure area located south of Mexico has become much better organized overnight. A fortuitous 0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in banding and was also very helpful in determining the center location. Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass which indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well defined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical depression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees Celsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or less during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for steady strengthening. Despite these seemingly favorable conditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less strengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a peak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days. Given the expected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the SHIPS and LGEM. Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken the cyclone. Since the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14. A strong mid- to upper- level ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja California peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward during the next several days. By day 4, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the cyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize. The NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus and is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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