je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-04 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 042050 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 The area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better organized today. Satellite data indicate that the center of circulation is now well defined, and thunderstorm activity is sufficiently organized to classify the system as a tropical depression. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds were near 30 kt, and that is used as the initial wind speed. The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it has just formed, but the best guess is 345/2 kt. A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue for the next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge. This pattern should take the cyclone very near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in about 2 days. A more northward motion is forecast after that time when the cyclone moves around the ridge. The model guidance is in fair agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The depression is in an environment of moist air, moderate shear and over warm waters. Since the cyclone is expected to remain in those conditions until it nears the Baja coast, steady strengthening is anticipated. Once it crosses Baja, land interaction and an increase in shear should cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is fairly close to the intensity model consensus. It is worth noting that there are large differences in the future wind radii predicted by the global and statistical models. The NHC size forecast closely follows the wind radii consensus model. Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane warning could be required by tonight. Heavy rains, which could result in flash flooding and mud slides, are expected to continue over portions of southwestern Mexico for another day or so. These rains will likely spread over the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 16.0N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E (EP5/EP152016)
2016-09-04 22:50:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 4 the center of FIFTEEN-E was located near 16.0, -105.4 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-09-04 22:50:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 042050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 105.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lazaro to San Evaristo, including Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued within 48 hours of the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 105.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula late Monday night or Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa, as well as the state of Baja California Sur, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches through Tuesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase near the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-04 22:50:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 042050 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 48(58) 8(66) X(66) X(66) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 6(60) X(60) X(60) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 26(58) X(58) X(58) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 44(49) 1(50) X(50) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) X(28) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X 3( 3) 33(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-09-04 22:49:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 042049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LAZARO TO SAN EVARISTO...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 130SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 105.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [1044] [1045] [1046] [1047] [1048] [1049] [1050] [1051] [1052] [1053] [1054] [1055] [1056] [1057] [1058] [1059] [1060] [1061] [1062] [1063] next »