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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-30 10:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300854 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Although there has been an increase in convection over the southeastern portion of the depression's circulation, the system is still being affected by westerly shear, with the low-level center exposed to the west of the deep convection. Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the unmanned NASA Global Hawk indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical storm strength. The NOAA aircraft has reported peak flight level winds in the southeastern quadrant of 32 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 30 kt. A dropsonde from the Global Hawk reported 33 kt surface winds, but the mean-layer wind over the lowest 150 m support winds closer to 30 kt. A very recent center drop from the unmanned aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is 1003 mb. The westerly shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next day or so, however dry mid-level air is expected to remain near and to the west of the system. As a result of the marginal environment, only gradual strengthening is predicted during the next couple of days. This is supported by the global models which do not significantly deepen the system until is moves over the western Atlantic and interacts with an upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and remains near the intensity consensus model IVCN. The aircraft fixes show that the depression has moved westward since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is 275/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward tonight around a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and Florida. After that time, a deepening mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States should cause the system to turn northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region. The dynamical models continue to agree on this scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the system after 36 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The more westward initial position has required a westward adjustment to the track through 24 hours, but otherwise, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.2N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 26.2N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 27.7N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 30.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 33.2N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 35.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-08-30 10:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 75.0W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 75.0W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 74.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 35.3N 74.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 36.5N 72.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 38.4N 69.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 43.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 75.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-30 10:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOON... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 the center of NINE was located near 23.8, -86.6 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-08-30 10:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 300849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 5(33) X(33) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) X(24) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) 5(36) X(36) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) X(35) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 31(39) 3(42) X(42) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 3(35) 1(36) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 28(38) 2(40) X(40) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 21(28) 2(30) X(30) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 3(23) X(23) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 2(23) X(23) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 24(39) X(39) X(39) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 31(47) 1(48) X(48) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20(32) 1(33) X(33) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 15(37) 1(38) X(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 16(50) X(50) X(50) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 7
2016-08-30 10:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 86.6W ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in central and northern Florida, and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow west-northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba, and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on dropsonde data from the NASA Global Hawk aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday, with maximum storm total amounts up to 12 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Friday morning, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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