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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-30 11:17:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 09:02:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 09:09:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-30 11:01:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300901 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Convection has again increased in association with Tropical Depression Eight, with the data from the Morehead City, North Carolina, WSR-88D radar showing weak convective banding in the northern semicircle. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft up to this writing show flight-level winds of less than 30 kt and a central pressure near 1010 mb. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, and this might be generous. The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest strengthening is possible if the current convection can persist near the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begins to interact with a frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the LGEM model. One change to the intensity forecast is to indicate that the system will become an extratropical low at about 72 hours before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/5. The depression should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track during the first 24 hours based on the initial position. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 33.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 34.4N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 35.3N 74.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 36.5N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 38.4N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 43.0N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-30 10:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.9, -75.0 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 8
2016-08-30 10:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300854 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 75.0W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight or Tuesday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 75.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward te north is expected later today, and a turn toward the northeast is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, beginning by this afternoon. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-08-30 10:54:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 300854 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 9 20(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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