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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-08-30 10:49:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300849 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 86.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 86.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 86.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 87.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.2N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.7N 85.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.7N 81.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 33.2N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 35.5N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 86.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-30 07:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION JOGS WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.8, -74.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 7A
2016-08-30 07:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300547 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 ...CENTER OF THE POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION JOGS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 74.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight or Tuesday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 74.5 West. The center of the depression has jogged a little to the west during the past few hours. Overall, the depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected tonight, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast later today. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, beginning by this afternoon. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression NINE Graphics
2016-08-30 04:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:50:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:48:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-30 04:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300249 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 Since the previous advisory, the depression's convective pattern has improved somewhat with the development of a cluster of deep convection with tops to -80C having developed near and also east through south of the center. Reports from nearby ships WAHV, J8NY, and C6CL6, along with reconnaissance data indicate that the low-level circulation is slowly improving. The central pressure of 1003 mb is based on a recent NOAA dropsonde report of 1005 mb with 20 kt of wind just north of the center. Since no winds of tropical storm force were sampled, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Similar to this time last night, the cyclone has made a jog to the west during the earlier convective hiatus period. However, the past couple of dropsonde reports suggest that the depression has resumed a longer term motion of 280/06 kt. There is little change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Other than having to adjust the forecast track southward slightly through 48 hours due to the more southerly initial position, the previous advisory track remains unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move slowly around the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over southern Florida for the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, the depression is expected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida ahead of a shortwave trough that is forecast to dig southeastward into the southeastern United States and northern Gulf Mexico. The new NHC track forecast lies between a blend of the GFS-ECMWF solutions and the consensus model TVCN. Data from the NOAA aircraft on its final outbound leg, along with the latest 00Z upper-air observations indicate that mid-level moisture north and northeast of the cyclone has increased since yesterday. However, water vapor imagery and upper-air data still indicate that very dry air lies just west of the cyclone across the central and western Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models continue to indicate that some of that drier air will be entrained into the western part of the cyclone's circulation by 24-36 hours, offsetting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very warm SSTs of more than 30 deg C. Therefore, only gradual intensification is expected during the next 48 hours or so. When the cyclone nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level winds are expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast lies close to the previous advisory and consensus model IVCN. Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast by tomorrow morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.9N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.2N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 24.9N 87.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 25.8N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 27.2N 85.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 30.1N 82.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/0000Z 33.1N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 04/0000Z 35.8N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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