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Tropical Depression NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-08-30 04:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 300248 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 1(18) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 1(20) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 1(22) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) 1(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) X(37) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 6(30) 1(31) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 9(38) 1(39) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 8(40) X(40) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 35(41) 4(45) 1(46) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 5(37) 1(38) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 33(40) 4(44) X(44) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 3(33) X(33) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) X(26) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 4(26) 1(27) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 20(33) 1(34) X(34) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 29(42) 1(43) X(43) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 36(47) 3(50) X(50) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 2(30) X(30) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 2(36) X(36) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 23(37) 2(39) X(39) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 24(27) 23(50) 1(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression NINE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-08-30 04:48:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300248 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 86.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.8N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.2N 85.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.1N 82.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 33.1N 75.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 35.8N 68.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 85.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression NINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-08-30 04:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 the center of NINE was located near 23.9, -85.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression NINE Public Advisory Number 6
2016-08-30 04:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300248 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 85.5W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight. A turn toward northwest and north-northwest is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba, and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over western Cuba through Wednesday. Isolated maximum storm-total amounts of 12 inches are possible over western Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are possible over much of the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible along the west coast of Florida from Naples to Steinhatchee. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Graphics
2016-08-30 04:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:34:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:34:33 GMT
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