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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-30 04:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300233 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 The increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today has not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical Depression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC. The depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear environment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest strengthening is possible if convection can persist near the center. After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to baroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a frontal zone. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the LGEM model. It should be noted that the system could dissipate before 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4. The depression should continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching baroclinic trough. The new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 33.8N 74.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 34.2N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 34.9N 74.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression EIGHT (AT3/AL082016)
2016-08-30 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 the center of EIGHT was located near 33.8, -74.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Public Advisory Number 7
2016-08-30 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.8N 74.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. Additional watches or warnings may be required later tonight or Tuesday morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 74.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion with a slower forward speed is expected tonight, with a gradual turn toward the north forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, beginning by Tuesday afternoon. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches over far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-08-30 04:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 FONT13 KNHC 300233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 24(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression EIGHT Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-08-30 04:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 74.1W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 74.1W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 34.2N 74.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.9N 74.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 36.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 37.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 41.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 74.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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