je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-11-18 16:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 181557 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 The circulation associated with the low pressure system located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California has become well-defined overnight according to scatterometer data. These data and first-light visible satellite imagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the southeastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection, suggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear. A Dvorak classification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier scatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt. Since the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial motion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain. A deep trough over the central United States has created a significant weakness along 110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the depression. However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of mainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion. This motion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build westward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts out. The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a west-northwestward track through 72 hours. After that time, a trough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast to eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature in about 96 hours. The official forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions, and generally near the multi-model consensus. There are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the short term. Although the waters are anomalously warm, some southeasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over the next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle troposphere. These large-scale conditions suggest that some strengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these two negative factors. Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter an environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly shear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly weaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model consensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Graphics
2015-11-18 16:56:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:56:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Nov 2015 15:55:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM MDT Wed Nov 18 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 13.0, -107.2 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 1
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 181555 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015 ...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM MDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 107.2W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM MDT (1600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 107.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and then northwest is expected Thursday and Friday with an increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2015-11-18 16:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 181555 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 1600 UTC WED NOV 18 2015 AT 1600Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [1187] [1188] [1189] [1190] [1191] [1192] [1193] [1194] [1195] [1196] [1197] [1198] [1199] [1200] [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] next »