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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122015)

2015-11-09 03:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... As of 10:00 PM EST Sun Nov 8 the center of TWELVE was located near 23.0, -73.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 1

2015-11-09 03:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090243 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 73.0W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, and for the Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the southeastern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas * Northwest Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 73.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A turn toward the north-northwest and north are expected on Monday and Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to pass near or over portions of the central Bahamas later tonight and early Monday, and near or over the northwestern Bahamas late Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas late tonight or early Monday, and spread over portions of the northwest Bahamas Monday afternoon. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through Monday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 1

2015-11-09 03:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090241 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND FOR THE ACKLINS, SAMANA CAYS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE ACKLINS...SAMANA CAYS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWEST BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 73.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 73.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 74.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.2N 76.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.1N 75.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 32.2N 71.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 73.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Graphics

2015-10-24 17:13:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 14:40:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Oct 2015 15:05:36 GMT

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Tropical Depression PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 19

2015-10-24 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015 Patricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central Mexico. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of the surface center, and there is little organized convection associated with the cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be generous. Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or trough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into northeastern Mexico. A low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the system forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later in the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along with the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details on this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 26.0N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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