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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-11-09 09:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090839 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 Deep convection has increased to the north and east of the depression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates now T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Based on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt depression. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning and should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's intensity. Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support some strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western Atlantic by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and toward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move around the western periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later today and north-northwest by tonight. While the dynamical models all show this general scenario, the depression is already out of sync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the simpler BAM trajectory models. Therefore, the official forecast has been placed to the west of the various consensus models during the first 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions observed in the dynamical model fields. After 36 hours, the BAM and dynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official forecast is closer to the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 23.6N 74.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.7N 75.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 30.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 33.4N 71.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122015)
2015-11-09 09:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... As of 4:00 AM EST Mon Nov 9 the center of TWELVE was located near 23.6, -74.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 2
2015-11-09 09:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 74.6W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF SAN SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Acklins, Samana Cays, Crooked Island, and Long Cay in the southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 74.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected today and tonight, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to pass near or over portions of the central Bahamas this morning and near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through this morning and will spread over portions of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Brennan
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-11-09 09:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 FONT12 KNHC 090839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 20 X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 2
2015-11-09 09:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090838 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE ACKLINS...SAMANA CAYS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND LONG CAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 74.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 74.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.7N 75.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 30.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 33.4N 71.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 74.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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