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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized. While the convection has increased during the past several hours, the low-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the convective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the initial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5. A developing mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression should result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours. After that time, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern Pacific should break the ridge with the depression turning northwestward and northward. While the guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a significant spread as to where the depression may make the northward turn. The new forecast track is a little to the south of the multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of it after that time. The depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear is forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours. However, despite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity guidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple of days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to weaken. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E (EP1/EP212015)
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 AM MST Thu Nov 19 the center of TWENTY-ONE-E was located near 13.7, -106.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Public Advisory Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 190835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015 ...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 106.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 106.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected today, with a motion toward the west-northwest expected tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later todat or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2015-11-19 09:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-11-19 09:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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